Pardee Center Analyzes Impact of COVID-19 on Global Development
âFirst we start with building a scenario that tries to represent a continuation of all of the things you would expect to see if the world continued as normal,â says Jonathan Moyer, explaining his work with global development modeling. âThe next question is âWell, what would disrupt that trend?ââ
Moyer says a pandemic is always one possible answer to that question. Today, of course, it is a reality.
That reality has completely reshaped Moyerâs work as an assistant professor in the żì»îappâs and director of the . Founded in 2007, the Pardee Center works to improve the human condition through long-term forecasting and global trend analysis. Much of the centerâs research revolves around the International Futures (IFs) modeling system, a free, open-source software developed by Barry Hughes, the Pardee Centerâs founding director. Today, the center is home to 15 full-time staff members and an additional 60 research aids.
While some think of the Pardee Centerâs work as peeking into the future, Moyer says itâs more about creating an understanding of what the future might look like under different conditions. This is especially true with COVID-19.
âSome people want to predict the pandemic. How long is it going to last and how many people will die? Thatâs not what we do,â he says. âInstead, we are sitting back and saying, âOK, what would the pandemic have to change and at what magnitude in order to see an effect on human development over the long term?â
The Pardee Centerâs work over the last year shows that the ramifications of COVID-19 will be felt well into the future, particularly for fragile regions on the brink of major development, like Sub-Saharan Africa.
Pardee Center scenarios depicting the most likely outcome of the pandemic show an additional 50-100 million people falling into extreme poverty in the wake of reduced economic activity and global lockdowns. But with a global pandemic comes uncertainty, and that uncertainty, Moyer says, could push us toward the worst-case scenario, in which the virus continues to mutate, vaccines rollout too slowly and extreme poverty rates increase beyond our imagination.
But thereâs also a best-case scenario â a chance for a global shift for the better.
âNow the positive story is that this COVID crisis is an opportunity to recognize that the world is full of shocks and things we canât anticipate,â Moyer says. âThe best way to prepare for them is to help poor and vulnerable governments and populations improve their capability to respond to shocks. ⊠If you do that, and you do it carefully, you can actually improve development and make things better than they wouldâve been in the absence of the crisis.â
As the world continues to watch the economic impacts of the pandemic, the team at the Pardee Center is also keeping a close eye on global conflict. One of its early pandemic reports forecasted the possibility of 13 new conflicts by 2022, which would bring the world back to the instability of the early â90s. While that hasnât quite come to fruition, Moyer says, increasing conflict is still a likelihood, particularly in areas where lagging infrastructure has prevented a robust government response to the pandemic.
âIf you have countries with poor abilities to respond to the needs of the citizenry, that can lead to additional conflict because then you have groups of people in the country who compete for power and you get internal coups or civil conflicts,â he explains. âBecause the pandemic has a big negative effect on the economy, that could spill forward and negatively affect governmentâs abilities to earn revenue, to provide security or services, health and education. That kind of a shock can cause populations who are not happy to revolt.â
While itâs still unclear how exactly the chips will fall, one thing is certain: The pandemicâs impact on sustainable development will be significant in one direction or the other. And itâs not just the economy and conflict. Things like food insecurity, gender dynamics, childhood development, Chinaâs rapid rise as a global power and more are being closely watched by the Pardee Center researchers.
Yet even with sophisticated tools and deep knowledge of development, so much remains uncertain. Thatâs par for the course, even outside of pandemic times, says Moyer.
âUncertainty is a certainty, and you have to live within that. But thatâs also why what we do is helpful,â he says. âYou canât get rid of it, you canât wish it away, but you can provide yourself with the proper knowledge that you can use to make better decisions.â